Thursday, February 9, 2012

The Evolution of "Boko Haram" (2)

It seems Bauchi State Governor Isa Yuguda was instrumental in persuading late President Yar’adua to curtail the menace of “Boko Haram”. Yuguda having decamped from PDP to ANPP, duly won the governorship in 2007. He subsequently became Yar’adua’s son-in-law, and returned to the PDP, possibly losing some political goodwill in the process. He may have dreaded returning to the electorate in 2011 with “Boko Haram” roaming free in Bauchi! I have previously noted that having fallen out with the sect, then Borno governor Modu Sherrif was also eager to see off Boko Haram. When security forces turned on “Boko Haram” between July 26 and 29, 2009, they responded in a surprising manner-in Maiduguri, they exacted “revenge” in a perverse manner by turning on the nearest Christians! While under attack from the army and police, Muhammed Yusuf ordered his followers to capture hundreds of Christians. The male captives had a simple choice-renounce your faith or die! For the females, it was renounce your faith or stay as captives, meaning slavery, servitude or worse! The worst treatment was reserved for Christian clergymen-three pastors were be-headed, with the executioners shouting “Allah Akbar” in wild celebration accompanied by celebratory gunfire. Pastor George Orjih of Goodnews Church, Wulari, Maiduguri was one of the three. Muhammed Yusuf personally urged him to renounce his faith and live, which the Pastor rejected and instead actually preached to Yusuf to accept the Christian salvation! Incensed, Yusuf ordered his immediate slaughter! Fortunately for most of the captives, government prevailed in that confrontation, so most of them were released after Yusuf’s capture. Once it launched its Jihad in 2010, Boko Haram has had four categories of targets-specific Islamic clerics who disagreed with its teachings or methods; government and security institutions and personnel; institutions which they considered abhorrent to Islam particularly hotels and beer parlours; and Christians and/or Churches. It is easy to understand why they would attack the first three groups-opposing Islamic clerics could potentially undermine their theology and legitimacy; government and security agencies had attacked them and killed their leaders; the disdain Moslems are supposed to have for alcohol and prostitution is well-known. The resort to targeting Churches and Christians, who till then had played no part whatsoever in this essentially intra-Muslim quarrel was inexplicable-the then president, governors of all states in which BH were attacked, the then National Security Adviser, etc, all being Muslims. The trend of BH attacking Churches and Christians has since accelerated, rather than decline culminating in the Christmas day 2010 attacks on Churches in Jos; 2011 bombing of the Madalla Church and killings in Yobe, Adamawa, Gombe, Borno, Bauchi, Niger and Plateau States. As previously stated, one can observe a clear transition from BH when it was pre-occupied with local politics in the North-East and Kano, and the newer version which seems to have a national or even international agenda (evidenced by the attack on the UN headquarters). It is clear that BH has been influenced by Nigerian politics in general, and the North-South power struggle that ensued after Yar’adua’s death in particular. Indeed it is possible to interpret their January 2 2012 ultimatum on Southerners to leave the North in explicit political terms-perhaps an attempt to reverse the April 2011 scenario in which a Christian Southerner obtained twenty-five per cent of the votes or more in most Northern states! One could also draw a parallel between the objectives of this ultimatum and the post-election violence which erupted across Northern Nigeria last April. Northern politicians such as Adamu Ciroma, Lawal Kaita, Yahaya Kwande, Muhammadu Buhari and Atiku Abubakar had made statements which may have contributed towards creating an environment conducive to or indifferent to political violence. Changes in Boko Haram’s methods and activities (such as suicide bombing) also suggest a link-up with Al Qaeda. The body language of some Northern leaders (such as Borno elders who spoke out only whenever government took military action and the initially tepid response of the Northern establishment) while not establishing complicity with BH, indicated at least mixed emotions! The Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF) very recently issued a shocking statement claiming falsely that BH’s ultimatum was in response to an earlier one issued by the “South-South”, in effect justifying same! The most blatant justification of BH has however been the one by CBN governor, Sanusi Lamido Sanusi who claimed to the Financial Times, that the BH phenomenon was a consequence of divergent federal resource flows to the South-South and North-East since the 13 per cent derivation principle in 1999! Sanusi ignored any facts that contradicted his logic-Cross-River and Edo States (both in South-South) which get next-to-nothing from derivation should then be consumed by terrorism; South-West and North-Central States who do not benefit from derivation haven’t shown the same tendency; the South-East zone actually receives lower federal allocations than North-East; and how does Sanusi explain pre-1999 religious riots in the North (when Northern States took the highest allocations based on population figures) including the 1980 Maitatsine crisis, or the 1995 beheading of Gideon Akaluka in Kano? I recommend that anyone interested in resolving the crisis of poverty, unemployment and ignorance in the North, should seek the solution in education, skills acquisition, focus on economic development and avoidance of extremist religious philosophy! The BH crisis has its roots in a dangerous combination of extremist religious ideology, abysmal social conditions and political brinkmanship!!!

The Evolution of "Boko Haram"

Muhammed Yusuf, founder of “Boko Haram” (BH) was a devout student and follower of Sheik Jafar Mohammed, a notable and influential Islamic scholar before he encountered a radical ideology (modelled on the Afghan Taliban) which counselled a total boycott of democracy, government and western education. Yusuf was attracted to this “pure” form of Islam, which led to a confrontation with his former mentor, who regarded such teachings as extremist, and who was later assassinated, probably by Yusuf’s followers in Kano in 2007. Shehu Sani claims that BH’s actual origin dates back to 1995 when it was called Sahaba and led by one Abubakar Lawan who later proceeded to the University of Medina for studies, paving way for Yusuf’s take-over. Some others trace the “Boko Haram” tendency to the Maitatsine group of the 1980s. The group is however formally believed to have started in Maiduguri in 2002. The group’s formal name is Jama’tu Ahlis Sunna Lidda’wati Wal-Jihad (People Committed to the Propagation of the Prophets’ Teachings and Jihad) though observers nicknamed them “Boko Haram” (consistent with their teachings and conduct) which meant “western education is sacrilege/sin/forbidden”. They seek to abolish the secular Nigerian constitution in favour of an Islamic state, and want to establish a complete Sharia-based state in the 19 Northern states and all over Nigeria. Sometimes known as “Yusuffiya” after its founder, BH also abhorred banking, taxation and western jurisprudence/court systems, and regarded the mixing of boys and girls in schools as improper. Yusuf also rejected scientific explanation for natural phenomenon. It appears clear (and was recently admitted by the new leader, Imam Abubakar Shekau, a hardline assistant of Yusuf now reportedly based in Qoundere, Cameroun) that the groups’ membership includes Chadians, Nigeriens, Camerounians and other non-Nigerians and its organisational structure provided for “Amirs” in Chad and Niger! Yusuf’s landlord and in-law, late Baba Fugu allowed him build a mosque in the railway quarters area of Maiduguri, and along with Shekau, Yusuf developed his “state-within-a-state”-including a cabinet, ruling council (Shura Council), departments, brigade of guards, military wing (with the “armies” recruited from the large pool of “Almajiris”), Hisbah, a large farm, and court with Yusuf as judge! As Yusuf’s empire expanded, there is little doubt that security agencies and the Nigerian state were aware of these developments. But in its dysfunctional state, they either looked the other way, or when security warned, their counsel was ignored! Yusuf’s message resonated with the large number of pious, poor, uneducated, unemployed and disaffected youth and even some undergraduates and university lecturers joined his ranks. As his influence expanded, Boko Haram became attractive to politicians and soon was to form an “alliance” with the Borno State Government under Senator Ali Modu Sherriff who became governor in 2003. Sherrif appointed one of Yusuf’s associates, Alhaji Buji Foi as Commissioner for Religious Affairs and Water Resources, and took the group under his wings, further expanding their influence and power, and making Yusuf quite wealthy. There was a political and social context to all this. Modu Sherrif was an opposition ANPP governor who was ready to use any means possible to defend his power base from the marauding PDP. Sherrif and his fellow ANPP governors, as well as their presidential candidate, then Muhammadu Buhari had championed what Obasanjo called “political Sharia” to insulate themselves from the ruling PDP onslaught. BH expanded to Bauchi, Yobe, Kano, and other Northern states, and quite plausibly helped ANPP sustain their holds on Borno and Yobe, and to capture Bauchi and Kano from the PDP. Then Sherrif and Yusuf fell apart! Knowing the power of his Frankenstein creation, Sherrif (and Isa Yuguda who having secured power on ANPP platform in Bauchi had headed back to PDP) launched a “pre-emptive” (in Yuguda’s words) strike against BH between July 26 and 29, 2009 routing the group in Bauchi, Maiduguri, Yobe and Kano States….or so it then seemed! It was convenient to all concerned to kill Yusuf, Boi and Baba Fugu! Meanwhile the political environment was changing in favour of BH’s narrative! President Yar’adua who gave the order to crush BH died and Northern politicians, Imams, Emirs and elite appeared unhappy that his Vice-President, Jonathan, a Southern Christian would take-over from him. To make things worse, Jonathan proceeded to contest and win the 2011 elections against Northern threats and intimidation. BH duly underwent a transformation. To provide troops, jail breaks were organised-on September 8, 2010 from Bauchi Prisons; and Yola Prisons on April 22, 2011 where detained members were freed. A transition in terms of funding, logistics, training, operational capabilities, intelligence and audacity were also evident. How and who oversaw these transformations? At the latest, by January 2010 when BH launched its Jihad with its first terrorist attack in Maiduguri, it may have linked with Al Qaeda as recently confirmed by the Nigerien foreign minister. From ride-by shootings on “okadas” in Maiduguri and environs, they graduated to audacious attacks on police headquarters in Abuja; bombing the United Nations Headquarters also in Abuja; and the Christmas day bombing of the St. Theresa’s Catholic Church in Madalla, Niger State! Suicide bombings also came into the mix! The suspicious circumstances of the “escape” of Kabiru “Sokoto” (of Biu), the alleged Madalla bomber in the custody of Zakari Biu confirms that BH may have links high up in the police, security agencies, traditional and religious establishment, and political and elite circles.

Thursday, December 29, 2011

Reflections on Faith and Society

It would be insincere to hope that Nigerian Christians had a “merry Christmas” on Sunday December 25, 2011, the day having been “celebrated” with bomb attacks on St Theresa’s Catholic Church, Madalla near Suleija in which scores of innocent worshippers were killed, courtesy of “Boko Haram”. In Jos, the terrorist Islamic fundamentalist organisation which seeks implementation of Sharia all over Nigeria also attacked a Mountain of Fire and Miracles (MFM) Church with gunmen shooting at departing worshippers and detonating improvised explosive devices. Last Christmas Boko Haram exploded bombs at several Churches in Jos, and in 2009, Farouk Abdul Muttalab chose Christmas day to attempt to blow up a US airline. I know the politically correct thing to say-that Boko Haram does not represent Islam; that this is not about religion or even politics, but unemployment and poverty. However as Boko Haram’s murderous campaign develops, those positions become less tenable. Boko Haram’s demand is for an Islamic state; all their attacks are directed against two institutions-the Nigerian secular government which it seeks to overthrow, including security agencies which sustain and protect the state; and Churches and Christians. As Senate President David Mark recently pointed out, the silence of Northern and Muslim leaders in the face of Islamist terror is deafening in its implications-either cowardice or complicity!!! Faith, Society and the Law I doubt if there is any legal system without roots in moral and/or religious principles. Most of the ideas that constituted the underpinnings of Western legal systems, which we inherited through British colonialism, have their foundations in Christian and Biblical moral principles and injunctions-the Ten Commandments (thou shall not kill; thou shall not steal; thou shall not bear false witness against thy neighbour; thou shall not covet thy neighbour’s house etc). These principles were further developed in more detailed laws and injunctions in the Book of Leviticus. Western societies learnt, correctly in my view, of the necessity of codifying these principles into a secular body of law rather than rely directly on the Bible or Canon Law in other that the law may develop and cope with the complexity of modern society. The Islamic Sharia seeks total reliance on the Quran, Sunnah and other principles of their faith and practices of their Prophet, so Islamic law is explicitly religious law. Traditional African society was governed on the basis of traditional religion. In Yoruba societies for instance, all the laws enforced by the Oba, his Chiefs, the Ogboni and other institutions of Yoruba society drew inspiration from Ifa. If there was doubt about how to proceed concerning any matter of state, the Oba and his Chiefs would summon an Ifa diviner to seek direction. When an adherent of Ifa such as Professor Wole Soyinka appears to support homosexual relations as a private matter between two adults, he may in fact not have support in Yoruba religion, history and culture. I have no doubt that if two men were found having anal sex in Yoruba society of old, their actions would have been regarded as an abomination and they may have been summarily executed! Is it possible to have a legal system or society that abandons all moral and spiritual underpinnings? I don’t think so! As the West may already be finding out (without yet understanding or acknowledging it) what you’ll get is a dysfunctional society in which bankers bring down the global economy through greed and recklessness; where politics becomes dysfunctional (such as US Republicans and Democrats unable to agree on anything); where suicide rates rise as humans have no hope and no moral imperative to confront the challenges of life; where family life breaks down almost completely; and where British youths loot shops and supermarkets for sneakers and designer cloths! It is moral underpinnings that provide restraints on human behaviour. When you remove them, life itself and society-politics, economy and social relations will eventually become dysfunctional. Amoral societies are a slippery slope!!! CAN and Its Adversaries There was a report on internet news portals that Professor Jubril Aminu, a former Executive Secretary of the National Universities Commission (NUC); former university Vice Chancellor; former Minister for Education; former Minister for Petroleum Resources; former Ambassador; and until recently a Senator of the Federal Republic canvassed the banning of the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) at the recent Northern Peace Conference in Kaduna! For some inexplicable reasons, this report did not show up in any of the mainstream media, possibly indicating that someone somewhere recognised the implication of the statement and tried to keep it out of circulation. I have waited for a denial from Aminu and/or the organisers of the conference, but none has been forthcoming so one must presume that he indeed made the comment. Which calls to question much about the quality of his thinking; his level of parochialism and prejudice; and is quite scary as it gives an uncomfortable peep into the mind of a man who occupied so many strategic positions in Nigeria. It also confirms that CAN is doing something right!!! Pastor Ayo Oritsejafor appears to have brought some insight, vigour and courage into the leadership of Nigeria’s Christians and clearly some ethnic and religious hegemonists are now quite uncomfortable. All I can say to CAN and Pastor Oritsejafor is, be vigilant, but keep doing what you’re doing!!!

Thursday, September 1, 2011

Religious Harmony

Religious Harmony

The Yorubas of Western Nigeria offer the world lessons in forging societal harmony in spite of being of different faiths. In virtually all Yoruba families you find Christians, Muslims and adherents of traditional and alternative (Grail, Eckankar, Rosicrucian etc) faiths. All my four grandparents were Muslims, indeed Alhajis and Alhajas. My parents were born Sikiru and Raliatu and only became Christians, thus Solomon and Margaret, as young persons, as the combination of Christian evangelism and education persuaded many to the Christian faith. Yet some of my parents’ brothers and sisters remained Muslims, so I have uncles, aunties, cousins, nieces and nephews who are Muslims. To the best of my knowledge, my grandparents never objected to their children’s adoption of Christianity, yet never wavered in commitment to their Islamic faith till their death.

I remember once observing my mother, herself now late, feeling quite unhappy. She, a committed Christian was apparently concerned that her mother who earnestly desired to, had not been able to observe the Islamic pilgrimage to Mecca. She was determined to remedy that situation, yet the cost of our education did not readily yield space for the expenses of the obligatory trip to Mecca! Well whatever sacrifice it would have required, the next year, my maternal grandparents went to Mecca, and we found the money to welcome them with an “Alhaji and Alhaja Kaabo” owambe party in typical Yoruba fashion! I may be known as Opeyemi Agbaje, but my grandparents duly gave me a Muslim name (which shall not be revealed in this column!) and indeed there were those who would only call me by that name!!!

As a teenager, the best time to visit my beloved “Alhaja” (as my maternal grandmother became known), was during Ramadan when I could eat my cake, and have it! Alhaja would wake you up to break the fast with her (even though you had not really fasted!); you could then go back to sleep and wake up late morning to a “regular” breakfast; have a normal lunch with the non-fasting and/or Christian members of the large household; “break fast” again early evening; and again enjoy dinner within the nightly fast-breaking window. I recall also joining the local boys as they took “Ileya” rams for head-butting contests during the bigger Islamic festival season! In Yorubaland, there is no telling, except for insiders, who is a Christian or Muslim during religious ceremonies, as everyone joins in the gaiety and celebrations.

This multiple religious heritage accounts for why Yoruba society has been largely immune to religious politics and why the people remain by-and-large unaffected by religious differences. Any politician, who tries to import religion into politics in Yorubaland, is likely to receive a shocker as Christians, Muslims and even traditionalists are likely to turn against such a person. In this season of Ramadan, I commend this approach to people of faith all over the world.

A Call for a Second Dialogue Committee!!!

Last Friday evening, I posted the following comment on facebook-“Boko Haram has bombed the UN office in Abuja killing at least 18 people and injuring several others. I urge President Jonathan (as usual) to set up a committee to dialogue with Boko Haram. In the spirit of reconciliation, the members of the dialogue committee may include Tanko Yakasai, Ibrahim Babangida, Muhammadu Buhari, Adamu Ciroma, Abubakar Atiku and Nasir El-Rufai! Troubled Country!!!” The post attracted interest and comments from “my friends and I” and we unanimously adopted the suggestion as a “vigorous and robust” response to the “dastardly” bombing. Some important modifications came from my friend “T.O” (any educated Nigerian newspaper reader must know who that is!) who noted that the proposed membership did not reflect “federal character”. Accordingly he recommended that we include my friend Femi Fani-Kayode to represent the Yoruba Council of Elders!

T.O also highlighted the need for a committee spokesperson proposing either Kazeem Afegbua or Senator J. K. N Waku. I deemed Waku rather old for the “onerous assignment”, so I chose Afegbua who has adequately demonstrated the “vigour and robustness” required for this critical national responsibility! Another Facebook friend, Chigozie wondered why I had excluded the (in his words oh!) “Almighty Gusau” I agreed to redeem this omission, but the resourceful T.O pointed out again that Gusau would be a good fit for the position of “Coordinating Member of the Boko Haram Dialogue Committee”!!! One fellow suggested including Tunde Bakare in the committee. I am not sure this recommendation was accepted! On my part, I wondered which constituency Bakare would represent, not been from Borno or Bauchi States or anywhere in the precincts from which Boko Haram originated, and not been a known apostle of dialogue! We are undergoing “further consultations” on that particular nomination! Meanwhile in place of Bakare’s controversial nomination, I suggested Mallam Yahaya Kwande, which was unanimously accepted. Finally Benjamin nominated the Sultan of Sokoto, who we all agreed should serve as Chairman.

“My friends and I” agreed that “the perpetrators of this heinous act must be apprehended” in order that after their apprehension, we can explain the importance of dialogue and peaceful nation-building to them. We also disagreed with Christian Purefoy who claimed on CNN that “after this kind of thing, nothing gets done” noting that setting up a dialogue committee is not “nothing”.

Wednesday, June 15, 2011

Women, Sex and Power

There is an epidemic of sex scandals consuming men of power around the world. The roll call appears to be a “who is who” in global politics, sports and finance! Tiger Woods kicked off the parade; Since then a variety of names have followed-Chelsea and England football captain, John Terry; former California Governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger; respected Manchester and Welsh footballer, Ryan Giggs; The most recent “victims” are the biggest-International Monetary Fund Managing Director, Dominique Straus-Khan (DSK) and US Congressman, Anthony Weiner. DSK, who a few months ago was one of the most powerful men in the world, seemingly destined to be the next President of France, was in the twinkle of a lustful hotel-room eye transformed into a common New York criminal, in handcuffs and detained in a notorious prison. Today he stays in more luxurious surroundings in a Manhattan apartment paid for by his loyal wife, but it’s a prison all the same!

What is it that makes men (whoever is without sin, should cast the first stone!!!) endanger everything-reputation, family, wealth and career etc. when faced with a beautiful (or sometimes not-so-beautiful) woman and the prospect of illicit sex? Why would recently-married Congressman Weiner, a popular New York Congressman whose pregnant spouse is aide to US Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, and widely considered a future Mayor of New York, send compromising pictures on Twitter to women he had never met? Why was he willing to take that risk? Why would former New York Governor, Elliot Spitzer, knowing he had made powerful enemies fighting organised crime, securities fraudsters, big multinationals who abused the environment, mortgage lenders etc endanger his political career by dealing with a prostitution service? What was he thinking? Was he thinking? Do men lose capacity for thinking when such actions are taken? Is this a case of temporary insanity?

Arnold Schwarzenegger, the Austrian-American former body-builder, model, actor, celebrity, businessman and politician who was Mr Universe at 20 in 1967 and Mr Olympia seven times; a Hollywood icon; Republican Governor of California married for over twenty-five years to Maria Shriver, niece of ex-President John. F Kennedy has just being discovered to have fathered a child fourteen years ago with the family’s Guatemalan housekeeper, and kept this from his wife until very recently. Is it just our nature as men? John Terry caused uproar in Chelsea and England when it emerged that he had dated the girlfriend of his teammate in both club and country, Wayne Bridge causing England manager, Frank Capello to strip him of the England captaincy for a while. Ryan Giggs case(s) are more scandalous, apparently! The fellow had apparently maintained an eight-year affair with his brother’s girlfriend and later wife!!! Giggs has also made an inadvertent contribution to British law with his now subverted “super-injunction” preventing revelation of another affair with Imogen Thomas.

David Blunkett lost his place as Home Secretary under Tony Blair because of an affair with Kimberly Fortier, an American Publisher who later decided to return to her husband; Tiger Woods lost his reputation and marriage (and a lot of money!) because of revelations about his sex life; President Bill Clinton was almost impeached because of his affair with Monica Lewinsky; David Beckham had his turn in the scandal tabloids; and even the dreaded General Abacha’s death is rumoured to have a connection with Indian “apples”!!! Who will save the male race from this affliction of testosterone??? The problem seems to go back to the end (actually beginning) of time as anyone familiar with the Bible can attest. Maybe Adam would not have eaten the “forbidden fruit” but for Eve’s prodding; King David paid a high price for the attractions of Uriah’s wife, Bathsheba; Samson met his waterloo in Delilah; Abraham had his time with the maidservant with serious, generational and historical consequences; and Jacob had to work for fourteen years just to get married to Rachael!!! Perhaps the matter is spiritual? Certainly it seems to be the surest route (as all the Biblical and current examples suggest) through which destinies are altered or destroyed! Ask Dominique Strauss-Khan whose hopes of becoming French President can only be resurrected by God Almighty himself!!!

Why do these issues seem positively correlated with men of exceptional strength (sportsmen), power (politicians and Kings) and riches? On the other hand, accounts of divorce proceedings in our customary courts suggest that similar scandals reach into the lower classes of society, except that you are not likely to sell many newspapers reporting the affair between an unknown bricklayer and his colleague’s street hawker wife!!! Cases like that of DSK illustrate the complexity of sexual relationships. Was there consent? What is consent? How is consent communicated-explicitly, implicitly or a blend of both? Does consent have social or cultural contexts or is it an objective verifiable transaction? Can consent first given (or assumed to be given) be withdrawn (or claimed to be withdrawn)? Would DSK have been arrested for his “crime” in France, Italy or Nigeria? Is there a political dimension to these things? Is sex emerging as the ultimate weapon of political competition? Can you discount targeting by political opponents from the cases of DSK, Weiner, Clinton and Abacha?

And then the role of technology-with Face book, Twitter, YouTube, Camera Phones and DNA, the scope and consequences of “temporary insanity” appears gravely elevated. Hmmm.....

Innocent Blood at Easter

Human life is sacrosanct being created by God in his own image. Even animal life is not meant to be capriciously dispensed with, except to preserve or provide nourishment for humans or as a form of religious offering. Most cultures and religions venerate blood, even of animals. Native Yorubas may sacrifice the blood of a chicken or goat as religious propitiation. For elevated matters, they may use a cow, or seven cows! They may even use humans for weighty sacrifices such as when it involved an Oba or communal good! Most Nigerian, African and traditional religions acted similarly. In Islam, we are familiar with the account of Prophet Ibrahim, the Biblical Abraham and God’s instruction to sacrifice Isaac, but God replaced Isaac with a ram just in time. To this day, Moslems in imitation of Ibrahim offer a ram in probably the most important Islamic festival.

Amongst Jews, blood was similarly critical to religious observance, sacrifice, recompensing sin, trespass, or making peace offerings. In Biblical Israel, God instructed the Jews to mark their doorposts with blood of sacrificial lambs, so he could “pass over” them. Solomon’s fantastic offering of 1,000 bulls was a famous example of the power of such sacrifices in moving the hand of God. The Jews believed that “And almost all things are by the law purged with blood; and without shedding of blood is no remission”. Thus the High Priest would enter the Tabernacle on the annual Day of Atonement, and offer a sacrifice to obtain mercy from God for Israel. If the High priest was himself unclean, he would sometimes die in the Holy of Holies! The Israelites were of course certain to sin again and the annual atonement would become a hollow ritual. The essence of the death and resurrection of Christ was God’s purpose to create an eternal and enduring sacrifice for mankind. Given the scale of the mission, only the blood of his own son, Jesus would do!

Unfortunately this Easter, the enduring memory would be the innocent lives needlessly shed in Northern Nigeria in the wake of President Jonathan’s victory in the April 16, 2011 presidential elections. At the very least, indirect (if not direct) responsibility for the carnage points towards General Muhammadu Buhari, Mr Tunde Bakare, members of their party the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) and certain elements of the so-called Northern Political Leaders Forum (NPLF). On September 17, 2010, Adamu Ciroma threatened “a series of events, the scope and magnitude of which we can neither proximate nor contain”; on October 5, 2010, Lawal Kaita threatened “to make the country ungovernable for President Jonathan or any other Southerner” elected president; on December 15, 2010, Atiku Abubakar warned of “violent change” and a certain Atiku Support Group added that “Boko Haram will be a child’s play compared with the action our members can take”.

Buhari and CPC campaigns were characterised by violence and riotous behaviour with drivers and passers-by compelled to chant “Sai Buhari”; Jonathan’s billboards were pulled down, his campaign office was destroyed in Gombe and he was pelted with stones in Nasarawa; Buhari issued a public instruction to his already volatile supporters to “lynch any body that tries to tinker with your votes” and his running-mate Tunde Bakare threatened a “wild, wild North” if their expected victory did not materialise. Early on polling day, Buhari complained of rigging and aeroplanes carrying thumb-printed ballot papers even before most voters had voted, and his party made allegations of computer fraud and rigging once results not favouring the party began to emerge. Interestingly so far, the only established “systematic rigging” of the presidential election has been intimidation of electoral officers and pervasive under-aged voting in Northern Nigeria, mostly for the CPC candidate. The “dying declaration” of youth corper Ikechukwu Ukeoma on Facebook, subsequently murdered in Bauchi, who declared “This CPC supporters would have killed me yesterday…Even after forcing under-aged voters on me, they wanted me to give them the remaining ballot papers to thumbprint. Thank God for the Police…” and CNN and local media evidence of child voting across the North is indisputable.

In the event, the calls for violence and “lynching” were obeyed in Bauchi, Gombe, Kano, Kaduna, Yola, Sokoto, Minna and elsewhere in Northern Nigeria as CPC supporters shouting support for Buhari burnt Churches, homes of PDP supporters and killed Southerners and Youth Corpers, in what are arguably crimes against humanity! It does seem that the orchestrated violence was designed for political purposes-to dissuade INEC and Government from announcing the rest of the results (as demanded by CPC Chairman Tony Momoh) as victory tilted irrevocably towards Jonathan; to force a political stalemate; or precipitate a national crisis that would have rendered the elections redundant! Whatever political calculations, the outcome is that innocent blood has been shed. It is particularly noteworthy that Bakare, who claims a Christian ministry, may be deemed complicit in the burning of Churches and killings of Christians!

Perhaps innocent blood has been shed in sacrifice for a new Nigeria? Perhaps President Jonathan and/or the international community will ensure that this time innocent blood is not shed in vain? Perhaps there would be truth, accountability and justice concerning responsibility for these needless deaths? What is certain is that God will demand an account of the blood of his children! May their souls rest in peace!!! Amen.

The Rise of Arab Democracy

Until the protests in Tunisia and Egypt, it was safe to surmise that there was some incompatibility between Arab (and perhaps) Islamic societies and democracy. With few exceptions (Lebanon, Palestine and Iraq), Arab countries were either monarchies, military or one-man dictatorships. Those three exceptions actually re-enforced the argument-Iraqi democracy was imposed by US neo-conservatives and remains unstable; democracy was forced on the Palestinians by the Arab-Israeli peace process; and Lebanon is hardly an example of how democracy is supposed to work. In all three, democracy carries a very high price tag-chaos, instability, political assassinations, the presence of an Islamic movement that threatened to overthrow or undermine the democratic system etc.

Until Tunisia! Tunisia is not yet a democracy, but its people have chased erstwhile President Ben Ali into exile. The ancien regime struggled to hijack the revolution, but the people have stayed steadfast, insisting that the former president’s entourage leave the incipient cabinet. What I found striking is that the whole Arab/Islamic revolutionary democratic wave was sparked by the actions of one desperate Tunisian, Muhammad Bouazizi who, fed up with unemployment, poverty and capricious government , set himself on fire! I do not support suicide in any form, even as an incitement to revolution or as a form of political protest, but his action proves one point-change cannot come except people are willing to pay the price. On international broadcast channels on Sunday February 20, I saw a man who had lost a son in the Bahraini crisis declare he was willing to sacrifice not just that son, but himself and four others for change and reform in his country!

I have called attention in the past to the Nigerian contrast which Fela sang about-“I no wan die, papa dey for house, mama dey for house, I wan build house, I wan buy car…” Like Fela also sang, our people fear those things they see, and even those they don’t see! And the prospect of popular revolution in Nigeria may be short-circuited by any hint of ethnic or religious colouration or agenda to the revolt or its leadership. But back to the Arabs whose turn it is to capture global imagination by their courage and desire for reform. I must confess I did not think Hosni Mubarak could be toppled by the protesters, until after the crowds continued to increase in Tahrir Square in Cairo after more than two weeks of the revolt. No analysis of Egyptian politics or history could have predicted the turn of events, precisely because it was a revolutionary and unprecedented moment! All templates for projecting scenarios in Egypt and indeed the Arab world were rendered redundant because this was a new, uncharted Egypt!

In spite of the distance I shared the pride and sense of accomplishment of many ordinary Egyptians who spoke to CNN, BBC, Al Jazeerah and other global media and sensed as they did that indeed, Egypt and the whole of Arabia may have changed for ever! But it is not over! The old order is giving way, but the new is yet to be defined. Western, Israeli and democratic activists’ fears that the revolution may be hijacked by elements of the departing regimes, the military or Islamists for instance are not completely unfounded. Some analysts have noted that the popular revolution against the Shah of Iran was taken over by the clerics and essentially today’s Iran is as undemocratic as pre-revolutionary Iran. It was ironic observing Iranian ambiguous response to the Egyptian crisis-on the one hand, they may have been happy to see Mubarak’s back and to increase pressure on Israel; on the other hand, revolutionary ferment was rising in Iran itself and the demonstrations in Cairo were likely to be repeated in Teheran!

Now the call for democracy and change is being heard across other Arab societies-Yemen; Bahrain; Morocco; Libya; Algeria; and Jordan. Most surprisingly the loudest noises are in Libya where one may have felt the strongman Ghaddafi had successfully silenced all opposition; and Bahrain where living standards were high and the country’s monarchy would have been considered safe. The protesters who were crushed in post-election demonstrations in Iran last time are also stirring again having received encouragement. Clearly the model of the strongman appears to be expiring in Arabia and the regimes will have to look to non-Arab Islamic examples like Turkey, Indonesia and Malaysia which have prospered as democratic societies whether of the secular model (Turkey) or more sectarian options (Indonesia and Malaysia). Hopefully they would not evolve into dysfunctional democracies ala Pakistan!

Beyond the current centres of agitation, the effects of the current wave will be felt elsewhere-Kuwait like Bahrain and other Arab monarchies will have to move towards becoming constitutional monarchies; Iraq and Afghanistan will have more incentive to proceed as democracies rather than follow the Taliban option; the strongmen in Syria and Sudan will in due course receive their own pressure; and Israel will have to quickly resolve the Palestine question or else it will have a potentially explosive and defining “Intifada” on its hands! One day the wave of reform and democracy will spread to Saudi Arabia! Newly democratic Arab countries may become more enterprising and vibrant and should secure a greater voice in global politics and economics. The conclusion from all of these is clear-Freedom is universal and even China may have to make some decisions!